Preliminary data on world supply and demand in 2008 released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) yesterday showed that, of the six LME metals, tin was the only one with a supply shortfall. However tin consumption fell more last year than demand for the other metals. Allowing for US stockpile disposals of 3,900 tonnes, WBMS estimated that world tin supply fell short of consumption by 4,300 tonnes last year. Supply and demand for lead was estimated to be approximately in balance and all other metals were in surplus.
WBMS estimates that world consumption of aluminium, copper, lead and zinc increased in 2008, while consumption of nickel fell by 2.8% and that of tin by 4.2%. In all cases WBMS calculates “apparent consumption” from production, trade and stocks figures.
Allowing for under-reporting of Chinese exports in its calculations, tin consumption in China is estimated to have fallen by 4.6% last year, while consumption in the other biggest Asian market – Japan – fell by 5.6%. The weakest large market was the USA, where apparent consumption picked up slightly in November and December but the cumulative total for the year was 25.8% lower than 2007. The preliminary figures show that the healthiest market was Europe, where apparent consumption rose by 2.1%.
