The World Bureau of Metal Statistics estimates that global refined tin consumption for the first seven months of the year was 205,700 tonnes, which was “fractionally lower” than in the comparable period of 2007. The decline is mainly due to a slump in demand in the USA in January-July, especially recently. Consumption in Asia and Europe is estimated to be up on year-ago levels. However WBMS has revised down its demand figures for China, because of suspicions that the use of official export data gives an incorrect assessment of apparent consumption (production plus net imports plus/minus changes in any reported stocks).
In a statement yesterday the Bureau noted that “reported Chinese exports have fallen to zero in the last two months and this has resulted in a substantial rise in the apparent consumption. Imports reported by other consuming nations from China show a fall in the availability of Chinese tin but this does not appear to have been as dramatic as the Chinese reported exports indicate. As a result, WBMS has revised its estimate of Chinese demand and the January to July total of 75,100 tonnes is 6.8 per cent above the comparable 2007 figure.” In its previous monthly report WBMS had calculated that Chinese demand in January-June was up 13% on year-earlier
It also noted that “US consumption was exceptionally low in both June and July and the cumulative total is 36 per cent lower than the first seven months of last year. Japanese consumption rose by 4.8 per cent compared with the depressed 2007 total.”
In its latest assessment of supply/demand balances for all the LME metals in January-July, WBMS said that the tin, nickel and copper markets were in deficit, lead broadly balanced and aluminium and zinc in surplus.
