A presentation at our Shanghai Tin Forum by Zhu Jian of Tianneng Power, one of the two leading Chinese motive battery producers, forecast that tin use by China’s lead-acid battery industry could increase from almost 12,000 tonnes in 2014 to 17,600 tonnes in 2018.
While rapid growth in tin use in recent years has been due mainly to government-enforced changes in grid alloy composition, replacing cadmium and antimony by tin, and the expansion of the unique e-bike market, going forward the three main drivers will be different. On the motive power side the big new market is expected to be pure electric short-range four wheel drive vehicles, while starter batteries will get a boost from the rising share of hybrid vehicles in the big volume regular car market and demand for industrial batteries for energy storage from solar and wind-generated power is also a significant factor. Motive batteries currently account for an estimated 38% of total production, with starter batteries taking 45% and industrial storage batteries the balance of 17%.
China’s battery industry has been transformed in the last three years, with hundreds of companies closing down but production rising by 55%. The changes resulted from implementation of the Access Conditions to China’s Lead-Acid Battery Industry regulation on July 1, 2012. There were 1,749 registered lead-acid battery producers nationwide in July 2011 (plus a similar number of unregistered companies), which were reduced to 485 in September 2014. The regulation required the switch to lead-tin alloys by the end of 2013.
Ownership of e-bikes in China has now reached 190 million, with annual sales of 30 million last year. However ownership of three- and four-wheeled electric vehicles is now rising more rapidly from a much smaller base: electric tricycle ownership is some 15 million units while the number of four-wheeled electric vehicles in use has doubled to 400,000 in the last two years. China’s booming demand for clean energy will continue to result in strong growth in tin usage in batteries.
