A new detailed study by ITRI, “Tin to 2012”, identifies the need for accelerated investment in new mine projects to meet future global requirements. The report, released this week, is the first Tin Annual Review from the 75-year old organisation’s recently established Statistics and Market Studies unit.
Over several decades the tin market has been over-supplied, as a result of successive booms in small-scale mining. However increasing restrictions on these operations and strong growth in consumption over the last decade have transformed the picture.
Two countries, China and Indonesia, now account for over 70% of global mine production. But China is on the verge of becoming a net importer and small-scale production in Indonesia has started to decline. The report concludes: “Looking ahead there is now a pressing need for increased investment in sustainable mining projects around the world. Outside the two major producing countries, production in the rest of the world needs to double by 2012 in order to keep up with forecast global requirements.”
World tin consumption has grown at a rate of 4% a year in the last decade, a dramatic improvement on its longer term performance. Growth rates are expected to dip in the forecast period, partly because the transition to high tin content lead-free solders will slow and also because higher prices will constrain usage in both existing and potential new applications.
In the next year or two the world supply/demand picture is fairly evenly balanced. ITRI forecasts that the market is likely to see a shortfall in new supply of 7,000 tonnes in 2008, but current stock levels are adequate or more than adequate to cover this. However by the end of the decade stocks may be reduced to historically very low levels, unless the current pipeline of committed and probable mine projects is rapidly augmented.
“There is no shortage of tin today, and the world’s tin resource base is adequate to maintain long-term supplies” said Peter Kettle, ITRI’s senior analyst, “but there could be supply problems in between – from around 2010 to 2012”.
For editorial information contact:
Peter Kettle, ITRI Ltd
Manager – Statistics and Market Studies
Telephone +44 (0) 1727 871 347
Email: peter.kettle@tintechnology.com
