The February issue of the CRU Tin Monitor report, now produced in association with ITRI, forecasts that Indonesian supply issues will result in a major run down in tin stocks this year.
Following recent problems in Indonesian and Bolivia, the LME tin price has risen to a new peak of over $13,000/tonne, a record since trading in US dollar terms resumed on the exchange in 1989. Indeed prices are now back to the same sort of levels recorded before the collapse of the International Tin Council’s buffer stock scheme in 1985/86, although in real, inflation adjusted terms they are still way off the all time peaks of over $35,000/tonne reached in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
The report forecasts that Indonesian refined metal production this year will fall by close to 30% to about 90,000 tonnes, of which some 50,000 tonnes will come from PT Timah, 15,000 tonnes from PT Koba Tin and 25,000 tonnes from some of the larger independent smelters which have been closed since last October. However this assumes that the police action against Koba is resolved rapidly and some of the independent smelters re-open early in the second quarter. This is probably a best case scenario as production could be further disrupted.
CRU-ITRI Tin Monitor’s first forecast of this year’s world supply/demand balance is shown in the table. Allowing for US stockpile disposals in the order of 10,000 tonnes it appears that global demand will exceed supply by approximately 30,000 tonnes. The global supply shortfall is roughly the same size as the predicted fall in Indonesian refined tin production this year. The drop in Indonesian supply might be partly offset by small production increases elsewhere, but world demand could continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than in the last few years.
“The world is not about to run out of tin. Stocks relative to consumption at the start of this year were higher than all the other LME metals and are sufficient to cover the supply deficit forecast,” comments Peter Kettle, ITRI’s recently appointed Manager for Statistics and Market Studies. “However visible stocks will be drawn down steadily over the coming months and if there is no real progress in freeing up Indonesian supply soon there is still plenty of upside potential for prices in the second quarter and beyond.”
The new improved Tin Monitor report
As of the February 2007 issue, the Tin Monitor will be published as a joint venture between CRU and ITRI (formerly the International Tin Research Institute). This collaboration will harness the strengths of ITRI and CRU to improve tin industry coverage and will provide subscribers with an uninterrupted service that will deliver an even more in-depth and dynamic publication. CRU will continue to handle distribution and marketing and both companies will contribute to the service content. Peter Kettle, who produced the first ever issue at CRU in 1980, is now responsible for statistics and market studies at ITRI, and will remain report editor.
For subscription enquiries, please contact: Sarah Webster at CRU, by telephone on: (0) 207 903 2147 or e-mail: sarah.webster@crugroup.com
