Latest China customs data shows a continuing rise in tin ore and concentrate imports but a drop in refined tin imports last month. The gross weight of ore and concentrate imports in November was 44,533 tonnes (estimated 5,300t contained tin), up by 17% compared to November 2015, while refined metal imports fell by 36% year-on-year to 8,396 tonnes.
The flow of raw materials continues to be dominated by border trade with Myanmar’s Wa county, which accounted for 99.7% of ore receipts last month. Cumulative supply from Myanmar in January-November was 426,720 tonnes gross weight, containing an estimated 51,000t tin. Close to 20% of this is believed to have come out of the Wa government’s stocks, including estimated sales of some 1,000t contained tin last month.
The fall in metal imports reflected price differentials between China and the rest of the world and a return to a more normal level of some 250 tpm in Bolivian supplies after two previous months of much higher imports. As usual refined tin exports were negligible, but sales of tin products not subject to 10% export duty jumped to 713t, bringing year-to-date sales to 4,486t, up 8% year-on-year.
ITRI View: Apart from the government sales, the Myanmar ore trade has also been boosted this year by the processing of stockpiled low grade ore which had been mined in the previous 3-4 years. Current mine production is reported to be declining because of the difficulties of deeper underground mining and the continuing decline in ore grades. The typical ore grade being mined has dropped to around 1.5% – 2% recently from 3% earlier this year, while supply of high grade ore (above 5%) is much diminished. Concentrate supply might get tighter next year after the local stock is depleted, although lower imports are likely to be at least partly offset by re-starts of idled mine capacity in China.
