China imported 950 tonnes tin and tin alloy in December according to official customs data released at the end of last week. Cumulative imports of tin and tin alloy declined by 23.6% to 18,542 in 2010. The decline was mainly because the LME price was much higher than Chinese domestic price since last September, resulting in a fall in imports and rise in exports in the final quarter. China exported 714 tonnes tin and tin alloy, up by 3.9%, in 2010 according to the official figures, but we believe actual exports were at least ten times this. Most tin metal is exported in the form of tin anode and other products, which are exempt from the 10% export duty on refined tin. Incomplete trade data for importing countries shows receipts of over 7,000 tonnes of Chinese tin, with more than a half of the total arriving between September and November. In these three months some 2,600 tonnes went to Singapore, and presumably mainly into LME warehouses.
While metal imports fell, purchases of tin ore almost doubled last year. China imported 19,840 tonnes tin concentrate (gross weight) in 2010, up by 94.5%. We estimate the weight of tin-in-concentrate was about 5,700 tonnes, the highest ever recorded. The main sources were Bolivia, Australia and Myanmar.
Although local tin demand is quiet in the run up to Spring Festival holidays next week, China domestic prices have soared in the last two weeks. The price rose from RMB 163,000 yuan (US$24,600) on 10 January to RMB 176,500 yuan (US$26,824) today, while the LME price was almost unchanged until the end of last week. The rise has been fuelled by good export sales and attempts by secondary tin producers to push up prices to compensate for the anticipated cancellation of the VAT rebates on scrap which had been available for the last two years.
