China’s refined tin usage is forecast to rise by 10.4% from 132,300 tonnes in 2007 to 146,000 tonnes this year, according to the country’s leading non-ferrous metals research organisation, Antaike. In a presentation at the ITRI-Metals Events international tin conference held in Hong Kong last week, analysts Cui Lin and Zhang Changhai predicted that growth would continue at a rate of 10% a year in the next few years, based on strong growth in the electronics sector and a major increase in tinplate capacity in 2008-2009.
Tin usage in solders, which are estimated to have accounted for 72% of total consumption in China last year, is expected to continue to expand at some 13% a year, although growth in the lead-free share of the market is expected to slow. Meanwhile an Antaike survey of steel companies identifies planned increases in tinplate capacity of some 1.2 million tpy in the next two years. Partly offsetting these gains, tin usage in chemicals is forecast to fall, partly in reaction to higher prices.
Tin smelting and refining capacity is also being expanded, but a lack of major new mining projects and increased competition for scrap means that raw materials constraints will limit growth in tin production. As a result Antaike forecasts a fall in net tin exports to 6,000 tonnes this year, from 10,588 tonne in 2007.
